Thursday, January 17, 2013

T&M Industry in India :Economic Linkges with Macros !

As the new year takes off,and we are past one fortnight some indications of the Government mood looks to be distinctly changing for the better.There is little bit economic pragmatism shown and the major part related to T&M industry is the signals of halving the CDMA spectrum price for next round of option.Supreme Court also lets the licenses continue till the March First week,enabling prominent players in CDMA taking part in the option. I think Government is finally realising the market call on selling Spectrum.It augurs well for Capex once these players are motivated to deploy network.

Likewise,there seems to be lot of customer churn and infact decline in number of subscribers and count among top ranked operators and only small hinterland based operators are gaining traction due to both focus and lower base effects.This is really giving a fillip to OSS/BSS activity and keeping tight grip on the Quality Management of Network.Its outfall can be positive to the T&M industry uptake. The sale of Smartphones catering to lower value segments is being upped by proper promotions as well. T&M may see some growth in maintaining wide customers devices there.

There is a little bit of talk on cutting back by 10% the Defense Budget of Rs 193000 Cr to address the current account deficit staring the Government finances ( Subsidy on Food,Fuel,Fertilisers).But its effect on ultimate T&M purchases will not be significant due to little size in comparison to overall pie.I think large scale deals of T&M through the DGS&D and otherwise direct from the users labs and field organisations should come through in this JFM period.As far as the smaller T&M players below the Top deck are concerned,they seem to be on good growth traction this year.So,overall the FY13 should exit with a small but sort of positive growth tone.We are expected to hold up to the overall revenue. More to come.

Happy new year. 2013 definitely hold HOPE and positivism ahead!

 

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